A new independent poll shows Monroe Mayor Jamie Mayo holds a slight lead in the 5th District congressional race.
Meanwhile, support for Congressman Vance McAllister and Dr. Ralph Abraham of Mangham showed signs of weakness.
According to the poll, which was conducted by the full-service political and communications firm Cygnal, Mayo tallied 19 percent of the projected vote for the Nov. 4 primary. McAllister was close behind at 17 percent while Zach Dasher of Calhoun recorded 13 percent and Abraham polled 11 percent. Mayo is a Democrat. Abraham, Dasher and McAllister are Republicans.
Cygnal is based in Montgomery, Ala. The widely respected firm also operates offices in Austin, Texas and Alexandria, Va. Conducted Sept. 22 through Sept. 24, Cygnal polled 504 mostly likely voters for the survey. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 4 percent. Nearly 22 percent of the poll’s respondents were undecided.
The Ouachita Citizen and its sister newspapers, The Franklin Sun and the Concordia Sentinel, obtained a copy of the poll. A group of lobbyists in Baton Rouge paid for Cygnal’s survey of the 5th District race. The newspapers also were given the particulars of the poll, better known as the crosstabs. The crosstabs as well as the “toplines,” or summary, for the poll can be seen online at this newspaper’s web site.
McAllister’s showing in the Cygnal poll was in stark contrast to his position in three earlier polls on the 5th District race.
The Glascock Group of Pineville released a poll in early August that showed McAllister leading a field of nine candidates in the 5th District race with 27 percent of the projected vote. His support fell to 20 percent by early September when the Glascock Group released a second poll on the 5th District campaign. In Glascock’s poll released in September, Abraham was in first with 22 percent of the projected vote. Mayo recorded 15 percent in Glascock’s September poll.
A JMC Analytics and Polling survey, commissioned by Abraham's campaign and conducted on Sept. 13, showed McAllister pulling 13 percent. According to JMC, Mayo led with 22 percent. Abraham tallied 17 percent of the projected vote.
Meanwhile, Cygnal's poll showed support for Dasher is on the upswing.
With 13 percent of the projected vote in Cygnal’s poll, support for Dasher has nearly doubled compared to his showing in a Glascock poll released in early September.
For other candidates in the 5th District race, Cygnal's poll results were less favorable.
Public Service Commissioner Clyde Holloway, a Republican from Forest Hill, recorded some 8 percent of the projected vote in Cygnal's poll. That figure was not much of a departure from the 9 percent he drew in a Glascock poll in the early September.
Cygnal's poll showed support for Harris Brown, a Republican from Monroe, had sunk to 5 percent compared to his 11 percent showing in Glascock's September poll.
Former Grant Parish District Attorney Ed Tarpley, a Republican, was at nearly 2 percent of the projected vote, according to Cygnal's poll.
Some 65 percent of the respondents in Cygnal’s poll were white. Roughly 26 percent were black. Nearly 57 percent of the respondents were female while some 43 percent were male.
Early voting for the Nov. 4 primary begins Oct. 21 and runs through Oct. 28.