It’s NFL conference championship weekend, and it features four teams that have elite talent on offense as evidenced by their high yardage props.
While there are several flashy offensive players who normally put up strong statistical showings, the defenses also have the talent to where scoring could be hard to come by, which is why we like more under plays than usual this week for our top player props.
With defenses likely zoning in on the opposing top skill players, it creates the opportunity for values to be had among lesser-known skill guys for DFS purposes, and we’ve got the top player prop plays as well as the best DFS values in both matchups.
TOP PROP PLAYS
Player prop odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Passing top play
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts UNDER 251.5 yards (-117) vs. 49ers
Hurts appears fully healthy after injuring his shoulder a few weeks back, but he didn't throw much last week in a blowout victory. Hurts will almost certainly be asked to do more this week, but he’ll likely have a tough time putting up his usual passing numbers considering how strong the 49ers' defense is on opposing quarterbacks with Nick Bosa and their pass rush.
Passing honorable mention
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes UNDER 281.5 yards (+106) vs. Bengals
Mahomes injured his ankle last week but was able to play through it, and he’s expected to be a full go this week after practicing in full. The issue, though, is that Mahomes hasn’t fared too well against the Bengals' defense recently, as he threw for only 223 yards against them in the regular season, and there’s always a chance the ankle could flare up since he hasn’t had much time to rest.
Rushing top play
Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco OVER 47.5 yards (-117) vs. Bengals
The Chiefs could be forced to run the ball more if Mahomes’ playmaking ability is limited, and they’ll likely lean on Pacheco to do so, as he’s taken a firm grasp as the Chiefs’ primary early-down runner. The Bengals' run defense is somewhat shaky, so Pacheco should have room to run and get enough opportunities to rack up yards on the ground.
Rushing honorable mention
Eagles RB Miles Sanders UNDER 51.5 yards (-131) vs. 49ers
The 49ers run defense bottled up the Cowboys last week, and they’re set to do so again despite Sanders coming off a strong outing against the Giants. Sanders has taken advantage when facing weak run defenses but has struggled against tough competition, so he likely won’t do much damage against the league’s No. 1 run defense.
Receiving top play
Bengals WR Tee Higgins OVER 56.5 yards (-137) at Chiefs
Higgins hasn’t put up his usual strong production in recent weeks, but he’s got a nice get-right opportunity against a Chiefs defense that’s vulnerable against opposing wide receivers. Higgins is still very much a go-to option for Joe Burrow, and he should receive plenty of chances to produce big plays with the Chiefs’ primary focus being to slow down Ja’Marr Chase.
Receiving honorable mention
49ers TE George Kittle OVER 46.5 yards (-127) at Eagles
49ers rookie quarterback Brock Purdy leaned heavily on Kittle last week going up against a tough Cowboys pass rush, and he’s set to do so again with the Eagles also having a ferocious pass rush. The Eagles' defense is somewhat vulnerable to opposing tight ends, so Kittle is in a position to have back-to-back strong outings as a receiver.
DFS player prices via DraftKings
NFC Championship: 49ers at Eagles
This matchup features two offenses with several elite playmakers, but the 49ers and Eagles have just as many or more star players on their defenses, which could limit the DFS upside. The good news is that there are several values that could produce strong numbers such as backup running backs Elijah Mitchell and Kenneth Gainwell, who get a decent amount of usage and can be had way cheaper than the starters. 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy being significantly cheaper than any other quarterback also screams value since he’s proven capable of producing through the air.
DFS values: 49ers QB Brock Purdy ($5300), 49ers RB Elijah Mitchell ($4900), Eagles RB Kenneth Gainwell ($4800), Eagles WR A.J. Brown ($7000) 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk ($4400), 49ers TE George Kittle ($5200)
AFC Championship: Bengals at Chiefs
The Bengals and Chiefs matchup appears to be a shootout in the making, but neither Joe Burrow nor Patrick Mahomes has been lighting it up through the air as they had been in the regular season. That’s because the Bengals' defense has allowed Burrow to not have to take as many chances, and Mahomes played it safe last week while battling through an ankle injury. So the move here could be target value plays such as Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco and Bengals WR Tee Higgins and spend up on NFC stars such as 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey and Eagles WR A.J. Brown.
DFS values: Bengals QB Joe Burrow ($6800), Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco ($5300), Bengals RB Samaje Perine ($4500), Bengals WR Tee Higgins ($5400), Chiefs WR Kadarius Toney ($3700), Bengals TE Hayden Hurst ($3000)
POSTSEASON PROP RECORD
Passing: 1-3 (top play 0-2, HM 1-1)
Rushing: 2-2 (top play 0-2, HM 2-0)
Receiving: 1-3 (top play 0-2, HM 1-1)
Hopefully, more under plays will help us get back on track this week!
Spencer ‘the Guru’ Urquhart (@spencertheguru) has been a fantasy football analyst since 2014, founding a community of over 6,000 followers
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